In this presentation, Mitchell Hoesing presents Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, by Ioannidis. In it, the author constructs a simple mathematical model based on parameters of statistical analysis and draws charts that compute probabilities that findings are valid given some assumption about bias, likelihood of finding effects, etc.
Presentation Link: https://psu.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/Group+Meeting/1_t59sdggw